Rational and intuitive management decisions. Categories of management information………………………………. List of used literature………………………………………………………

When looking at decision-making processes, there are two things to consider. The first is that making decisions is usually relatively easy. Everything a person does comes down to choosing a direction of action. It's hard to make a good decision. The second point is that decision making is a psychological process. We all know from experience that human behavior is not always logical. Sometimes we are driven by logic, sometimes by feelings. It is therefore not surprising that the methods used by a leader to make decisions range from spontaneous to highly logical. A rational approach to decision making is described below, but it is important to remember here that a leader is influenced by psychological factors such as social attitudes, accumulated experience and personal values. Next, we will consider the influence of some behavioral factors on the management decision-making process.

Intuitive
solutions

Solutions based
on judgments

Rational
solutions

Rice. 4.10. Classification of the decision-making process

Although any specific solution rarely falls into any one category, it can be argued that the decision-making process is intuitive, judgmental and rational in nature (Figure 4.10).

Intuitive solutions. A purely intuitive decision is a choice made solely on the basis sensations that he is correct. The decision maker does not consciously weigh the pros and cons of each alternative and does not even need to understand the situation. It's just a person making a choice. What we call insight or sixth sense are intuitive solutions. Management scholar Peter Schoederbeck (1971) points out that “while increased information about a problem can greatly help middle managers make decisions, those at the top still have to rely on intuitive judgments. Moreover, the computer allows management to pay more attention to data, but does not replace time-honored managerial intuitive know-how” (Mescon M., 1994). The significant dependence of top-level managers on intuition was confirmed in his research by Prof. Minzenberg (1973).

According to another study of the activities of senior managers, 80% of the surveyed managers said that they discovered that they had a specific serious problem only through “informal exchange of information and intuition” (Mescon M., 1994). Dr. Jonas Sock (1979), who discovered the polyvaccine, states: “Intuition is something whose biology we still do not understand. But always, waking up in the morning in pleasant excitement, I think about what she has in store for me today, as if I were waiting for seafood. I work hand in hand with her and rely on her. She is my partner." Paul Cook (1983), founder and president of the materials science firm Reichem, says that almost all of his decisions are intuitive, and the major decisions he has regretted were not based on intuition.

In a complex organizational situation, thousands of choices are possible. An enterprise with enough money can, for example, produce any product. However, he will be able to produce and sell at a profit only some of its types. Moreover, in some cases the manager does not even know at first possible options choice. Thus, a manager who relies solely on intuition is faced with permanent randomness. From a statistical point of view, the chances of making the right choice without any application of logic are low.

Decisions Based on Judgment. Such decisions sometimes seem intuitive because their logic is not obvious. A judgment-based decision is a choice based on knowledge or experience.(Mescon M., 1994). A person uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations before to predict the outcome of alternative choices in an existing situation. Using common sense, he chooses an alternative that has brought success in the past. When, for example, you make a choice about whether to study a management degree program or an accounting degree program, you are likely making a decision based on judgment based on your experience in the introductory courses in each subject. If you have received A's in several management programs and only C's in accounting programs, you will probably choose to pursue further management.

Judgment as a basis for organizational decision is useful because many situations in organizations tend to repeat themselves frequently. In this case, the previously made decision can work again no worse than before (this is the main advantage of programmed decisions). A simple example involves hiring people with management degrees, which happens hundreds of times a year in a large organization. Despite the successes of psychological testing, nothing has been invented that would guarantee 100% success in management. Therefore, some organizations may make a judgmental decision to hire only Ph.D. (or MBA) holders who have achieved high grades in management education programs because they have a history of performing better than recruits with university degrees in the same fields. .

Another example: the decision to give the competent secretary the right to respond to all routine correspondence without external control. There are many similar examples that can be given, since judgment is the basis of many everyday management decisions. This is why employers tend to place a high value on experience when hiring.

Since a decision based on judgment is made in the head of the manager, it has the significant advantage of being quick and cheap to make. It relies on common sense, but true common sense is very rare. This is especially true when you have to deal with people, because... Often the situation is distorted by people's needs and other factors. Perhaps more importantly, judgment alone is not sufficient to make a decision when the situation is unique or very complex. The vice president of the international consulting firm Booz, Ellen and Hamilton points out: “Many managers still believe that all problems can be solved with common sense. However, what seems simple may very well turn out to be extremely complex. The problem may only seem obvious” (Gerald Tavernier, 1979).

The judgment cannot be related to a situation that is truly new because the manager has no experience on which to base a logical choice. This should include any situation that is new to the organization, for example, a change in the range of products produced, the development of a new technology, or the trial of a reward system that differs from the current one. IN difficult situation judgment may be a poor guide, since the factors that need to be taken into account are too many for the “naive” human mind and he is not able to cover and compare them all. For example, shortly after World War II, executives from American automobile factories visited Volkswagen in Germany. Ernest Breech, then president of Ford, concluded that this “car is not worth a penny” and should never be sold in the United States. However, ten years later, Ford launched production of the Edsel model, similar to Volkswagen, which, however, turned out to be one of the most high-profile failures in the history of the automotive industry (David Frost and Michael Deakin, 1983).

Since judgment is always based on experience, excessive emphasis on experience biases decisions in directions familiar to managers from their previous actions. Because of this bias, a manager may miss a new alternative that should be more effective than familiar choices. More importantly, a leader who is overly committed to judgment and experience may consciously or unconsciously avoid taking advantage of opportunities to venture into new areas. If you take this thought to its conclusion, fear of new areas of activity can end in disaster. As semanticist Stuart Chase has observed, many of us are slaves to linear thinking. Very often we hear the words: “We have always done it this way.”

Adapting to something new and complex is obviously never going to be easy. The danger of failure due to making a bad decision cannot be ruled out. However, in many cases, a manager is able to significantly increase the likelihood of making the right choice by approaching the decision rationally.

Rational solutions. The main difference between a rational decision and one based on judgment is that the former does not depend on past experience. A rational decision is justified using an objective analytical process of the type discussed in the next section (Meskon M., 1994).

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1. Classification of management decisions

2. Criteria for management decisions

3. What are intuitive management decisions

4. Who has the right to make intuitive decisions?

For a long time - right up to the emergence of the behavioral approach - management theory was based on the postulate of rational behavior in general and decision-making in particular. It consists in the fact that a leader must and can build his behavior and make decisions, focusing on the maximum consideration of all factors of the situation. This led to the development of so-called rigid management schemes based on the concept of “rational man.” However, it was later shown that the psychophysiological limitations objectively inherent in humans make it impossible to strictly rational behavior and decision-making, and full consideration of all objective factors is also impossible in principle. As a result, the concept of “bounded rationality” was developed, one of the main theses of which is that subjective, psychological characteristics These are objective, limiting factors of behavior. They have an important and often decisive influence on both decision-making processes and management. As a result, a “school of decision-making” emerges, which justifies the need for a transition from hard-rationalist ideas to “soft” management schemes; The classical theory of the firm gave way to behavioral theory.

There are different approaches to the typology of management decisions. One classification divides them into intuitive, judgment-based and rational decisions. Intuitive decisions are distinguished by the fact that they poorly represent the stages that were discussed above and, in particular, the stage of conscious assessment - “weighing” alternatives. A judgmental decision is a choice informed by knowledge and past experience. In contrast, rational decisions do not have direct support only on past experience as “common sense”, but are made on the basis of a sequence of analytical procedures.

The decision made must meet certain criteria - only in this case can it be considered optimal. Despite the variety of conditions and approaches that make each management decision unique, a number of universal criteria“good” and “bad” management decisions (Table 6.1):

Table Criteria for management decisions

Intuitive decisions are choices made based on a feeling that they are the right ones. Intuition is the ability to directly, as if suddenly, without logical thinking, find the correct solution to a problem. Thus, intuition is an essential component creative process management in general. Despite the fact that intuition becomes sharper along with the acquisition of experience, the continuation of which is precisely a high position, a manager who focuses only on it becomes a hostage to chance. The decision maker does not consciously weigh the pros and cons of each alternative and does not even need to understand the situation. In a complex organizational situation, thousands of choices are possible. An enterprise with enough money can, for example, produce any product, but it will only be able to produce and sell at a profit only some of its types. Moreover, in some cases, the manager does not even know the possible choices at first. Thus, a manager who relies solely on intuition is faced with permanent randomness. From a statistical point of view, the chances of making the right choice without any application of logic are low.

The intuitive solution comes after or during the rest that follows intense but fruitless attempts to solve the problem.

An intuitive solution requires a properly organized formal-logical verification of its truth. It is the logical test that suggests the direction of further search for truth if the decision turns out to be erroneous.

An intuitive decision always precedes a logical one. This phenomenon has long been known to the psychology of creativity, although it has remained unclear until now. It is now clear to us: it cannot be otherwise, since a logical solution arises only on the basis of an intuitive one, when the problem has actually already been solved. This is where the need arises to express the decision in language, verbalize it, and sometimes formalize it, in other words, formulate it logically.

Sometimes very effective intuitive solutions come to a person in a dream.

An intuitive decision is a choice made only on the basis of a feeling that it is the right one, and there is no clear explanation for such a choice.

The aesthetic factor also takes part in the process of intuitive decision. With any type of intuition - eidetic or conceptual - it is as if the picture (situation) is being completed to completeness.

As you know, intuitive decisions, visions or images arise spontaneously, unexpectedly, out of nowhere.

Both in the case of intuitive decisions and in statistical regulation, random checks to identify abnormalities are performed on the basis of the same samples as the checks that make up the operational chain of decisions: tuning - control of the tuning level - selective acceptance. Thus, they are connected to the operational chain by combining samples.

Can an intuitive solution be beneficial?

Who has the right to make intuitive decisions.

However, random observations and intuitive decisions are becoming not only insufficient, but even harmful in technology today.

Indeed, the description of the process of intuitive decision depends relatively little on the type of activity of the creative person. It is characteristic that both the scientist and the composer, when describing intuitive creativity, pay considerable attention to emotions. The role of this component in finding and solving technical problems is underestimated in the literature on inventive creativity.

The choice of area is associated with those intuitive decisions that the experimenter makes at each stage of work.

Many studies confirm that an intuitive solution to a problem is achieved first, and then a logical one. However, intuition grows only from the depths of experience and previously acquired knowledge. What is needed is not just knowledge, but knowledge embodied in the skills and abilities to solve inventive problems, even if they are not very complex. This is a fairly lengthy process, which should begin at school or vocational school.

Along with the logical solution of problems, there is their intuitive solution by directly considering the result - the truth.

The listed patterns are most strictly related to obtaining an intuitive solution, an intuitive effect. Such tasks, while remaining creative, are not problems.

The optimal option must be made not on the basis of an intuitive decision, but on the basis of a strict calculation using the criterion of comparative effectiveness. Evaluating various route generation options is all the more necessary for complex, multi-defective parts with a large number of possible states.

Veitch diagram for a function of four variables. Simplification of logical expressions using identities is based on intuitive decisions and is very difficult, especially with a large number of variables.

The main feature of all the examples considered is that eye-based, intuitive decisions turn out to be untenable. The failures that our intuition gives when solving calculation problems are a very characteristic and understandable phenomenon. Our brain is adapted to successfully and quickly solve only those tasks for which it is trained. In this it resembles a computer: no program, no solution. The only difference is that in the absence of a program, a computer simply will not work, but a person will...

The path integral also turns out to be very effective in deriving direct and intuitive solutions to several quantum mechanical problems where the operator formalism in the Hilbert space hides physical meaning calculations. The main goal The introduction of the path integral is to establish a connection between the transition amplitudes of quantum dynamics and the trajectories of classical dynamics.

Intuition is, of course, very important for managers, but intuitive decisions must be verified by facts. Of course, the importance of the role of intuition is not in doubt.

Unfortunately, equations (10.68) and (10.69) do not have any intuitive solution; furthermore, there are no known analytical solutions.

On the other hand, the management game follows suit business world, emphasizes the importance of intuitive decisions, without sufficient attention to the consequences arising from the different ways of achieving these decisions. Management games perpetuate the black box nature of the business world. The causal structure of the game itself is not the subject of study. The game focuses on a short-term crisis and making an immediate decision in connection with it, rather than on the long-term development of rules and organization that would avoid the crisis. If a management game tries to improve intuitive decision making, it directs the risk inherent in nonlinear systems learning, for a special combination of circumstances that exist in the game, but do not provide a basis for determining when these special conditions will cease to exist.

The first and fourth phases represent a logical search and transformation of information necessary for the maturation of an intuitive decision, as well as an analysis of this decision, while the second and third are intuitive. Consequently, opposite types of thinking work together in creativity: both logical and figurative.

Both of the above phenomena have been characterized as anomalous, but in fact they are the result of insufficiently motivated intuitive decisions and clearly demonstrate the need for fundamental research. To be able to accurately predict the behavior of coatings, it is necessary to develop phase identification methods, as well as studies of diffusion, evaporation, glass transition and other fundamental phenomena.

Most often, subjective information obtained during an interview is used only to support an intuitive decision.

The problems under consideration belong to the class of complex dynamic problems, where both strictly formalized and intuitive decisions are made.

The problems considered in this work belong to the class of complex dynamic problems, where both strictly formalized and intuitive decisions are made.

The following series of experiments is applicable to situations where analysis was also possible, but the manager is less confident in the correctness of his intuitive decisions. In some of these situations, analysis can confirm and reinforce his intuition; in others, analysis will refute or correct it.

Delegation (distribution of responsibilities and powers among one's subordinates) aims to relieve the manager and give him the opportunity to search for intuitive solutions to problems that are difficult to verbalize; however, we still know little about how a leader can increase his or her ability to respond to such situations. Like a manager in the field of management, a specialist in management science must be able to intuitively approach management problems in order to be effective in his work. However, unlike a manager, a specialist in management science must also have an intuitive understanding of his own tools of analysis.

Then, if the conditions under which the process, in principle, proceeds, even as poorly as desired, are known, it is possible, using intuitive decisions, to select the zero level and the intervals of variation of factors.

The human mind is still able to compete with a computer, and if not in the speed of thinking, then in the presence of many associative connections and the ability to make intuitive decisions.

The current practice of education is in a transitional stage - educators are not yet working according to well-established scientific technology, but are gradually moving away from intuitive solutions to educational problems that are focused on individuality. There is a noticeable desire for the introduction of proven, beneficial technological discoveries, a desire for unification and standardization of requirements.

Although obvious grids have become established as a necessary prerequisite in modern graphic design, they will continue to erode in favor of less systematic, less logical, more intuitive solutions.

The term heuristics in the generally accepted sense denotes a certain amount of non-standard, i.e. techniques, methods and procedures that are unusual for this type of problem, leading to a guess, i.e. to an intuitive solution of the type of problems under consideration. Of course, a heuristic solution to any complex technical problem is its preliminary solution, the correctness of which we are confident of only intuitively. Such a solution requires serious experimental research and solid mathematical justification.

The practical feasibility of using decision-making methods can be proven over time, when sufficient experience has been accumulated confirming that the consequences of human activity based on intuitive decisions are significantly inferior in usefulness to the results of a scientifically based choice of alternatives. Now that there is little experience in the practical application of decision-making methods, they are supported by the fact that the reasons for many unsuccessful decisions lie in insufficient attention to the selection process. A convincing argument also seems to be that a group of people or a decision maker (DM) must be rational, at least in order to be able to explain to others the logical basis of their choice.

Intuition is the ability to directly, as if suddenly, without logical thinking, find the correct solution to a problem. An intuitive solution arises as an internal insight, enlightenment of thought, revealing the essence of the issue being studied. Intuition is an essential component of the creative process. Psychology considers intuition in connection with sensory and logical knowledge and practical activity as direct knowledge in its unity with indirect knowledge, previously acquired.

Intuition, as a component of the creative process, represents the ability to quickly, as if suddenly, find the right solution to a problem. An intuitive solution arises as an internal insight, enlightenment of thought, helping to reveal the essence of the issue being studied.

Development of design tools due to the emergence of new application packages, computer-aided design systems (SMOD) and various local automation tools design work gives the issues of automation of design management even greater relevance, since with computer-aided design it is necessary to ensure synchronicity in making design and management decisions. Intuitive decisions of individual project managers and performers are not always effective and efficient. It is necessary to strictly justify each management decision made, which large quantities options for organizing the design process are impossible without automation of calculations.

The inadequacy of such programs and plans reveals the high degree of difficulty of this creative task. The success of an intuitive solution depends on the degree of automation of the method of action: the less automated this method is, the greater the chances of solving the problem. When searching for creative solutions, one should not avoid simplifications, and one should not be afraid to go beyond the initially intended area of research. Awareness of the fact of the decision occurs completely unexpectedly; it arises due to the fact that a need that has reached great tension by this time is satisfied. First, the fact of satisfying the need is realized, and then - solving the problem. In this decision, the most important role belongs to the by-product, which may not be realized, because At first, the method of solution is not realized.

The latter decision was recommended by the EVOP committee. This is an example of the intuitive solution that is so typical in an industrial experiment. If there is no great danger of a sharp deterioration in the process, then testing such hypotheses obtained without sufficient formal grounds is certainly justified. And some risk always exists.

The successful choice of sub-area is, as you can see, of great importance for the success of the entire work. It is associated with the intuitive decisions that the experimenter makes at each stage. We will look at how this is done below - in the next chapter and in Chap.

Good choice of subdomain is of great importance. It is associated with intuitive decisions, catarrhs are made by the experimenter at each stage.

From experience it follows that favorable circumstances arise when the subject, fruitlessly searching for a solution to the problem, exhausts the wrong techniques, but has not yet reached the stage at which the search dominant extinguishes, i.e. when the subject loses interest in the task, when already attempted and unsuccessful attempts are repeated, when the situation of the task ceases to change and the subject recognizes the task as unsolvable. Hence the conclusion that the success of an intuitive solution depends on the extent to which the researcher was able to free himself from the template and become convinced of the unsuitability of the previously known paths and at the same time maintain passion for the problem and not recognize it as unsolvable. The hint turns out to be decisive in liberation from standard, template trains of thought.

The level of validity of decisions is directly related to the methodology for making them. Here we can also distinguish stages: intuitive decisions, normative ones and, finally, decisions confirmed by the use of mathematical modeling methods. The degree of validity of decisions at each stage increases.

managerial intuitive logical rational

Intuitive decisions are choices made solely based on a feeling that they are the right ones. Judgmental decisions are choices driven by knowledge or experience.

Literature

· Stafford Beer. Brain of the firm = Brain of the firm. -- 2nd ed. -- M.: URSS, 2005. -- P. 416.

· Goldstein G. Ya. Fundamentals of management: Tutorial, ed. 2nd, expanded and revised. - Taganrog: TRTU Publishing House, 2003. - 150 p.

· Peter Drucker Challenges of management in the 21st century = Challenge management in the 21st century. -- M.: "Williams", 2007. -- P. 272. -- ISBN 0-7506-4456-7

· Peter Drucker Practice of Management = The Practice of Management. -- M.: "Williams", 2007. -- P. 400. -- ISBN 0-7506-4393-5

· Zotov V.V., Presnyakov V.F., Rosenthal O.V. Institutional problems of implementing systemic functions of the economy //Economic science modern Russia. -- 2001. -- No. 3. -- p. 51-69.

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Depending on the basis underlying the decision-making, there are:

intuitive solutions;

judgment-based decisions;

rational decisions.

Intuitive solutions.

A purely intuitive decision is a choice made only on the basis of a feeling that it is correct.

The decision maker does not consciously weigh the pros and cons of each alternative and does not even need to understand the situation. It's just a person making a choice. What we call insight or “sixth sense” are intuitive decisions.

- Hello, student! Tired of searching for information?)

— Course student/diploma/essay quickly.

Management expert Peter Schoederbeck points out that “while increased information about an issue can greatly help middle managers make decisions, those at the top still have to rely on intuitive judgments. Moreover, computers allow management to pay more attention to data without replacing time-honored managerial intuitive know-how.”

Decisions based on judgment. Such decisions sometimes seem intuitive because their logic is not obvious. A judgment-based decision is a choice driven by knowledge or experience. A person uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations before to predict the outcome of alternative choices in a given situation. current situation. Using common sense, he chooses an alternative that has brought success in the past. However, common sense is rare among people, so this method decision-making is also not very reliable, although it is captivating with its speed and cheapness.

When, for example, you are making a choice between studying a management degree program or an accounting degree program, you are likely making a decision based on judgment based on your experience with the introductory courses in each subject.

Judgment as a basis for management decision is useful because many situations in organizations tend to be subject to frequent conquest. In this case, the previously made decision can work again no worse than before, which is the main advantage of programmed decisions.

Another weakness is that the judgment cannot be related to a situation that has not previously occurred, and therefore there is simply no experience in solving it. In addition, with this approach, the manager tends to act primarily in those directions that are familiar to him, as a result of which he risks missing good result in another area, consciously or unconsciously refusing to invade it.

Rational decisions are based on methods of economic analysis, justification and optimization.

Depending on personal characteristics The manager making the decision is usually distinguished:

balanced decisions;

impulsive decisions;

inert solutions;

risky decisions;

careful decisions.

Balanced decisions are made by managers who are attentive and critical to their actions, put forward hypotheses and their testing. They usually have an initial idea formulated before making a decision.

Impulsive decisions, the authors of which easily generate a wide variety of ideas in unlimited quantities, but are not able to properly test, clarify, or evaluate them. Therefore, decisions turn out to be insufficiently substantiated and reliable; they are made “at once”, “in jerks”.

Inert solutions become the result of careful search. In them, on the contrary, control and clarifying actions prevail over the generation of ideas, so it is difficult to detect originality, brilliance, and innovation in such decisions.

Risky decisions differ from impulsive ones in that their authors do not need to carefully substantiate their hypotheses and, if they are confident in themselves, may not be afraid of any dangers.

Cautious decisions are characterized by the manager's thorough assessment of all options and a hypercritical approach to business. They are even less distinguished by novelty and originality than inert ones.

Types of decisions that depend on the personal characteristics of the manager are characteristic mainly in the process of operational personnel management.

For strategic and tactical management in any subsystem of the management system, rational decisions are made based on methods economic analysis, justification and optimization.

Depending on the degree of preliminary formalization, there are:

programmed decisions;

unprogrammed decisions.

A programmed decision is the result of implementing a certain sequence of steps or actions. Typically, the number of possible alternatives is limited and choices must be made within the directions given by the organization.

If the budget stipulates that 2 kg of raw materials and materials are consumed to produce a unit of product, then the decision is made automatically - the planned production volume is 1000 pieces, therefore it is necessary to purchase 2000 kg of raw materials.

Likewise, if the finance manager were required to invest his excess cash in certificates of deposit, municipal bonds, or common stock, whichever would provide the greatest return on investment at the time, the choice would be determined by the results of a simple calculation of each option and the determination of the profitable.

Programming can be considered an important aid in making effective management decisions. By defining what the decision should be, management reduces the likelihood of error. This also saves time because subordinates do not have to develop a new correct procedure every time a situation arises.

It is not surprising that management often programs solutions for situations that recur with some regularity.

It is very important for a manager to have confidence that the decision-making procedure is, in fact, correct and desirable. Obviously, if a programmed procedure becomes incorrect and undesirable, decisions made through it will be ineffective, and management will lose the respect of its employees and those outside the organization who are affected by the decisions made. Moreover, it is highly desirable to communicate the rationale for a programmed decision-making methodology to those who use this methodology, rather than simply offering it for use. Failure to answer questions that begin with “why” in connection with a decision-making procedure often creates tension and resentment among the people who must apply the procedure. Effective information sharing improves decision-making efficiency.

Non-programmed solutions. Decisions of this type are required in situations that are somewhat new, internally unstructured, or involve unknown factors. Since it is impossible to draw up a specific sequence of necessary steps in advance, the manager must develop a decision-making procedure. The following types of solutions can be classified as unprogrammed:

what should be the goals of the organization;

how to improve products;

how to improve the structure of the management unit;

How to increase the motivation of subordinates.

In each of these situations (as most often happens with unprogrammed decisions) the real reason the problem could be any of the factors. At the same time, the manager has many options to choose from.

In practice, few management decisions turn out to be programmed or unprogrammed in their pure form.

Most likely, they are extreme reflections of some spectrum in the case of both everyday and fundamental decisions. Almost all decisions end up somewhere between the extremes.

Few programmed decisions are so structured that the personal initiative of the person making them is completely excluded.

And even in the situation of the most difficult choice, the methodology for making programmed decisions can be useful.

Indicators of the quality and effectiveness of management decisions

Purpose of management decision- ensuring progress towards the goals set for the organization. Therefore, the most effective organizational decision will be the choice that will actually be implemented and will make the greatest contribution to achieving the final goal.

Quality of management decision- this is a set of solution parameters that satisfy a specific consumer (specific consumers) and ensure the reality of its implementation.

Management decision quality parameters:

entropy indicator, i.e. quantitative uncertainty of the problem. If the problem is formulated only qualitatively, without quantitative indicators, then the entropy indicator approaches zero. If all indicators of the problem are expressed quantitatively, the entropy indicator approaches one;

degree of investment risk;

the likelihood of implementing the decision in terms of quality, costs and timing;

degree of adequacy (or degree of forecast accuracy) theoretical model the actual data on which it was developed.

Management decision- this is the choice that a manager must make in order to fulfill the responsibilities associated with his position (the choice of an alternative made by the manager within the framework of his official powers and competence and aimed at achieving the goals of the organization). Decision making is the basis of management. Responsibility for making important management decisions is a heavy moral burden, which is especially evident in higher levels management.

Solution is a choice of alternative. Every day we make hundreds of decisions without even thinking about how we do it. The fact is that the price of such decisions is, as a rule, low, and this price is determined by the subject who made them. Of course, there are a number of problems relating to relationships between people, health, and the family budget, the unsuccessful solution of which can lead to far-reaching consequences, but this is the exception rather than the rule.
However, in management, decision making is a more systematic process than in privacy.

The main differences between management decisions and decisions in private life.

1. Goals. The subject of management (whether it is an individual or a group) makes a decision not based on his own needs, but in order to solve the problems of a specific organization.

2. Consequences. An individual's private choices affect his own life and may affect the few people close to him.

A manager, especially a high-ranking one, chooses the course of action not only for himself, but also for the organization as a whole and its employees, and his decisions can significantly affect the lives of many people. If an organization is large and influential, the decisions of its leaders can seriously affect the socio-economic situation of entire regions. For example, a decision to close an unprofitable company operation can significantly increase the unemployment rate.

3. Division of labor. If in private life a person, when making a decision, as a rule, carries it out himself, then in an organization there is a certain division of labor: some workers (managers) are busy solving emerging problems and making decisions, while others (performers) are busy implementing decisions already made.

4. Professionalism. In private life, each person makes his own decisions based on his intelligence and experience. In managing an organization, decision making is a much more complex, responsible and formalized process that requires professional training. Not every employee of the organization, but only those with certain professional knowledge and skills, is given the authority to independently make certain decisions.

Decision making is preceded by several stages:

the emergence of problems on which decisions need to be made;

development and formulation of alternatives;

selection of the optimal alternative from their sets;

approval (making) of a decision;

organization of work to implement the solution - feedback

Classification of management decisions

Depending on the basis underlying the decision-making, there are:

intuitive solutions;
judgment-based decisions;
rational decisions.

Intuitive solutions. A purely intuitive decision is a choice made only on the basis of a feeling that it is correct. The decision maker does not consciously weigh the pros and cons of each alternative and does not even need to understand the situation. It's just a person making a choice. What we call insight or “sixth sense” are intuitive decisions. Management expert Peter Schoederbeck points out that “while increased information about an issue can greatly help middle managers make decisions, those at the top still have to rely on intuitive judgments. Moreover, computers allow management to pay more attention to data without replacing time-honored managerial intuitive know-how.”

Decisions based on judgment. Such decisions sometimes seem intuitive because their logic is not obvious. A judgment-based decision is a choice driven by knowledge or experience. A person uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations before to predict the outcome of alternative choices in an existing situation. Using common sense, he chooses an alternative that has brought success in the past. However, common sense is rare among people, so this method of decision-making is also not very reliable, although it is captivating with its speed and cheapness.

Another weakness is that the judgment cannot be related to a situation that has not previously occurred, and therefore there is simply no experience in solving it. In addition, with this approach, the manager strives to act primarily in those directions that are familiar to him, as a result of which he risks missing out on good results in another area, consciously or unconsciously refusing to invade it.

Rational solutions based on methods of economic analysis, justification and optimization.

Depending on the personal characteristics of the manager making the decision, it is customary to distinguish:

balanced decisions;
And impulsive decisions;
inert solutions;
risky decisions;
careful decisions.

Balanced Solutions accepted by managers who are attentive and critical to their actions, put forward hypotheses and their testing. They usually have an initial idea formulated before making a decision.

Impulsive decisions, the authors of which easily generate a wide variety of ideas in unlimited quantities, but are not able to properly test, clarify, and evaluate them. Therefore, decisions turn out to be insufficiently substantiated and reliable; they are made “at once”, “in jerks”.

Inert solutions become the result of a careful search. In them, on the contrary, control and clarifying actions prevail over the generation of ideas, so it is difficult to detect originality, brilliance, and innovation in such decisions.

Risky decisions They differ from impulsive ones in that their authors do not need to carefully substantiate their hypotheses and, if they are confident in themselves, may not be afraid of any dangers.

Careful decisions are characterized by the manager’s thorough assessment of all options and a hypercritical approach to business. They are even less distinguished by novelty and originality than inert ones.

Types of decisions that depend on the personal characteristics of the manager are characteristic mainly in the process of operational personnel management.

For strategic and tactical management in any subsystem of the management system, rational decisions are made based on methods of economic analysis, justification and optimization.

Depending on the degree of preliminary formalization, there are:

programmed decisions;
unprogrammed decisions.

Programmed solution is the result of implementing a certain sequence of steps or actions. Typically, the number of possible alternatives is limited and choices must be made within the directions given by the organization.

For example, the head of the purchasing department of any production association, when drawing up a schedule for the purchase of raw materials and materials, may proceed from a formula that requires a certain ratio between the planned production volume and the number of raw materials and materials for the production of a unit of finished products. If the budget stipulates that the production of a unit of production will cost2 kg of raw materials and supplies, then the decision is made automatically - the planned production volume is 1000 pieces, therefore it is necessary to purchase 2,000 kg of raw materials.

Likewise, if the finance manager were required to invest excess cash in certificates of deposit, municipal bonds, or common stock, whichever would provide the greatest return on investment at the time, the choice would be determined by the results of a simple calculation of each option and the determination of the profitable.

It is not surprising that management often programs solutions for situations that recur with some regularity.

It is very important for a manager to have confidence that the decision-making procedure is, in fact, correct and desirable. Obviously, if a programmed procedure becomes incorrect and undesirable, decisions made through it will be ineffective, and management will lose the respect of its employees and those outside the organization who are affected by the decisions made. Moreover, it is highly desirable to communicate the rationale for a programmed decision-making methodology to those who use this methodology, rather than simply offering it for use. Failure to answer questions that begin with "why" in connection with a decision-making procedure often creates tension and resentment among the people who must apply the procedure. Effective information sharing improves decision-making efficiency.

Non-programmed solutions. Decisions of this type are required in situations that are somewhat new, internally unstructured, or involve unknown factors. Since it is impossible to draw up a specific sequence of necessary steps in advance, the manager must develop a decision-making procedure. The following types of solutions can be classified as unprogrammed:

what should be the goals of the organization;
how to improve products;
how to improve the structure of the management unit;
How to increase the motivation of subordinates.

In each of these situations (as is most often the case with unprogrammed solutions), the true cause of the problem could be any of the factors. At the same time, the manager has many options to choose from.

In practice, few management decisions turn out to be programmed or unprogrammed in their pure form.

Most likely, they are extreme reflections of some spectrum in the case of both everyday and fundamental decisions. Almost all decisions end up somewhere between the extremes.

Requirements for solutions

minimum number of adjustments;
balance of rights and responsibilities of the manager making the decision - responsibility must be equal to his powers;
unity of command - the decision (or order) must come from the immediate supervisor. In practice, this means that a superior manager should not give orders “over the head” of a subordinate manager;
strict liability - management decisions should not contradict each other;
validity - a management decision must be made on the basis of reliable information about the condition of the object, taking into account its development trends;
concreteness;
authority - a management decision must be made by a body or person who has the right to make it;
timeliness - a management decision must be timely, because a delay in a decision sharply reduces the effectiveness of management.

Conditions for a quality solution

application of scientific management approaches to the development of management solutions;
studying the influence of economic laws on the effectiveness of management decisions;
providing the decision maker with quality information characterizing the parameters of “output”, “input”, “ external environment"and the "process" of the solution development system;
application of methods of functional cost analysis, forecasting, modeling and economic justification for each decision;
structuring the problem and building a tree of goals;
ensuring comparability (comparability) of solution options;
ensuring multiple solutions;
legal validity of the decision;
automation of the process of collecting and processing information, the process of developing and implementing solutions;
development and operation of a system of responsibility and motivation for high-quality and effective solutions;
the presence of a mechanism for implementing the solution.

A solution is considered effective if:

1. It comes from realistic goals.

2. To implement it, there is the necessary time and the necessary resources.

3. It can be implemented in the specific conditions of the organization.

4.Contingency and emergency situations are provided for.

5. It doesn't provoke conflict situations and stress.

6.Changes in the business and background environment are anticipated.

7. It makes it possible to monitor execution.

One of the important factors influencing the quality of management decisions is the number of management levels in the organization, the increase of which leads to distortion of information when preparing a decision, distortion of orders coming from the subject of management, and increases the sluggishness of the organization. The same factor contributes to the delay of information received by the subject of the decision. This determines the constant desire to reduce the number of management levels in the organization.

A serious problem associated with the effectiveness of management decisions is also the problem of implementing these decisions. Up to a third of all management decisions do not achieve their goals due to low performance culture. In our and foreign countries sociologists belonging to a variety of schools pay close attention to improving performance discipline, including ordinary employees in the development of solutions, motivating such activities, nurturing “trademark patriotism,” and stimulating self-government.

Levels of Decision Making

The differences that exist in the types of decisions and the differences in the difficulty of the problems to be solved determine the level of decision making.

M. Woodcock and D. Francis identify four levels of decision making, each of which requires certain management skills: routine, selective, adaptive, innovative.

The first level is routine. Decisions made at this level are ordinary routine decisions. As a rule, the manager has a specific program on how to recognize the situation and what decision to make. In this case, the manager behaves like a computer. Its function is to “feel” and identify the situation, and then take responsibility for initiating certain actions. A leader must have instinct, correctly interpret existing indications of a particular situation, act logically, make the right decisions, show decisiveness, and ensure effective actions in right time. This level does not require a creative approach, since all actions and procedures are prescribed in advance.

The second level is selective. This level already requires initiative and freedom of action, but only within certain limits. The manager is faced with a range of possible solutions, and his task is to evaluate the merits of such solutions and to select from a number of well-developed alternative sets of actions those that best suit the given problem. Success and effectiveness depend on the manager's ability to choose a course of action.

The third level is adaptation. The manager must come up with a solution that may be completely new. The manager has before him a certain set of proven possibilities and some new ideas. Only personal initiative and the ability to make a breakthrough into the unknown can determine the success of a manager.

The fourth level, the most difficult, is innovative. The most complex problems are solved at this level. It is absolutely required on the part of the manager new approach. This may involve finding a solution to a problem that has previously been poorly understood or that requires new ideas and methods to solve. A leader must be able to find ways to understand completely unexpected and unpredictable problems, develop the skill and ability to think in new ways. The most modern and difficult problems may require the creation of a new branch of science or technology to be solved.

Optimization of management decisions

The most common methods for optimizing management decisions are:

mathematical modeling;
method of expert assessments;
brainstorming method (brain attack);
game theory.

Mathematical modeling used in cases where a management decision is made on the basis of extensive digital information that can be easily formalized. The widespread use of mathematical models makes it possible to quantitatively characterize the problem and find the optimal solution.

The main stages of optimizing a management decision using mathematical methods are:

Statement of the problem.

The choice of efficiency criterion, which must be expressed unambiguously, for example, by a certain number, and reflect the degree of compliance of the results of the solution with the set goal.

Analysis and measurement of variables (factors) influencing the value of the effectiveness criterion.

Construction of a mathematical model.

Mathematical solution of the model.

Logical and experimental verification of the model and the solution obtained with its help.

Expert assessment methods are used in cases where the problem completely or partially cannot be formalized and cannot be solved by mathematical methods.

The expert assessment method is a study of complex special issues at the stage of developing a management decision by persons with special knowledge and experience, in order to obtain conclusions, opinions, recommendations and assessments. The expert opinion is drawn up in the form of a document that records the progress of the study and its results. The introduction indicates: who, where, when and in connection with what organizes and conducts the examination. Next, the object of examination is recorded, the methods used for the study, and the data obtained as a result of the study are indicated. The final part contains conclusions, recommendations and practical measures proposed by experts.

The most effective use of the method of expert assessments is when analyzing complex processes that have mainly qualitative characteristics, when forecasting trends in the development of the trading system, and when assessing alternative solutions.

Brainstorming method(brainstorming) is used in cases where there is a minimum of information about the problem being solved and a short deadline has been set for solving it. Then specialists related to this problem are invited, they are invited to participate in a forced discussion of its solution. In this case, the following rules are strictly observed:

everyone speaks out in turn;

they speak only when they can offer a new idea;

statements are not criticized or condemned;

all offers are recorded.

Usually this method allows you to quickly and correctly solve the problem that has arisen.

A variation of the brainstorming method is jury opinion. The essence of this method is that specialists are involved in discussing the problem various fields activities that interact with each other. For example, managers of the company's production, commercial and financial departments are involved in the decision to release a new product. The use of this method helps generate new ideas and alternatives.

One of the methods for optimizing management decisions in conditions of market competition is the use of methods used in game theory, the essence of which is to model the impact of a decision on competitors. For example, if, using game theory, the management of a trading firm concludes that if competitors raise prices on goods, then it may be advisable to abandon the decision to increase prices in order to avoid being at a competitive disadvantage.

Methods for optimizing management decisions can complement each other and be used comprehensively when developing important management decisions.

The choice of methods for optimizing management decisions largely depends on the information support of management.

Many Japanese companies have used the Ringisei decision-making system to one degree or another, providing in-depth elaboration and coordination of decisions.

The classic “ringisei” procedure provided for repeated approval of the prepared decision at several levels of management, starting with ordinary employees (one of them is entrusted with drawing up a preliminary draft decision) and ending with senior managers who approve the decision that has passed all stages of approval. Coordination includes consultations at the level of ordinary employees of various departments (they are carried out by the employee responsible for preparing the preliminary draft decision), at the level of heads of departments and other divisions (carried out in the form of circulation of the draft decision among all departments related to this issue), and then more high-ranking managers - deputies and heads of departments or departments. By the end of circulation, the draft document turns out to be endorsed with the personal seals of dozens of superiors of various ranks. If disagreement arises during the preparation of a decision, consultative meetings of managers at the appropriate level are held at one level or another, during which an agreed position is developed. This practice of preparing decisions is quite complex and time-consuming, but most Japanese corporations go to such a slowdown in decision-making, counting on the fact that the “ringisei” procedure, which ensures coordination of actions at the decision-making stage, facilitates the coordination of their subsequent implementation.

The system has unconditional advantages. However, it is not without some disadvantages. It is believed that the procedure should ensure an influx of new ideas and freedom of opinion when discussing decisions. But this doesn't always happen. Sometimes, in conditions of a strict hierarchy and respect for superiors, such a process comes down to attempts by subordinates to predict the opinion of managers rather than to promoting their independent point of view. In this form, the “ringisei” system often turned into a complex and not always useful mechanism, taking a lot of time from managers and employees of different ranks to coordinate decisions.

Therefore, there is a gradual reduction in the sphere of influence of the Ringisei decision-making method. This is due to a number of reasons, including widespread planning and budget development methods in Japanese companies (due to this, there is no need to make decisions on many issues using the traditional method). Considering that long-term planning is used, according to available data, by 83% of Japanese firms, the scale of such changes is quite noticeable. 63% of Japanese firms have increased individual decision-making power, which again has led to a reduction in the scope of ringisei. By 1974, 4% of Japanese companies had completely eliminated the ringisei system.

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Similar documents

Depending on the basis underlying the decision-making, there are:

Intuitive solutions.

Rational decisions are based on methods of economic analysis, justification and optimization.

Depending on the degree of preliminary formalization, there are:

Indicators of the quality and effectiveness of management decisions

Management decision quality parameters:

The main differences between management decisions and decisions in private life.

Classification of management decisions

Requirements for solutions

Conditions for a quality solution

Levels of Decision Making