In organizations, intuitive decisions are usually made. The main differences between management decisions and decisions in private life. Definition of information and its types

All solutions are divided into two groups: programmable and non-programmable.

Programmable solutions are built on the basis of an established policy of rules and regulations. For example, if a manager at General Electric receives a request for a salary increase from an operator, then the decision to grant or not this request is programmable. Like most large organizations (due in part to unions), GE operates on a fixed-salary system. The salary level in this organization is not only fixed, but most often it is stipulated in the contract. And the response to a request for a salary increase will most likely be consistent with the general policy that operates at the enterprise.

Non-programmable decisions may not be limited by any further rules and procedures. Such decisions are usually made in the event of unforeseen or newly emerging problems and, as a rule, they make extensive use of the manager's personal initiative and personal views. For example, in a pending request from an operator for a salary increase, the manager may discover ambiguity in GE's policy regarding the calculation of an employee's individual work time. Note that the policy assumes the inclusion of sick time in working hours employee, but does this include unpaid allowances? The operator believes that total time his work includes his sick leave, but his foreman doesn’t think so. This situation requires a non-programmable solution. Managers, together with union leaders, will first have to eliminate duality from their policies and then accept specific solution to satisfy the operator's request.

The categories of programmable and non-programmable solutions are not mutually exclusive. Sometimes the line between them is blurred, and we can find a solution that stands between a completely programmable and a completely non-programmable solution. In the case of the operator, a routine request for a salary increase, which would seem to imply a programmable decision, brings clarity to the ambiguity of the company's salary policy. If this policy is specifically about what constitutes a calculation of total working hours, then the decision will be programmable. But since there is ambiguity in this case, a non-programmable solution is needed.

Clearly, it is in a manager's best interest to avoid making unprogrammed salary decisions. Practical lesson What can be learned from this example is that the overall program on which programmable solutions are built must be absolutely clear and concise. Gaps that exist in the program must be identified and highlighted. IN in this example, managers should have resolved the issue before a controversial situation arose. This would save the company from a non-programmable solution.


Defining different types of solutions is important practical significance. Determining the category of a decision suggests a direction of action and helps the manager formulate and analyze the motives for this decision. The types of solutions are revealed below and are given as a contrast to each other. The first type is a programmable solution. The second is non-programmable.

6. Features of intuitive solutions.

Intuitive decisions are choices made solely based on a feeling that they are the right ones. Intuitive decisions do not require situation analysis. The human brain receives so much information that the consciousness does not have time to process it entirely to make a decision. It is limited to large elements that make up the meaning of the event. The rest, more subtle, or small details, fall into the subconscious, bypassing conscious perception. It is there that a complete picture of the situation emerges and the only correct way out is chosen almost instantly. This is what is called insight, superconsciousness, intuition.

There is definitely a limit to our conscious thinking that should not be forcibly crossed. When a person puts off any work to allow his thoughts to “ripe,” he directly counts on the work of his thinking on a subconscious level. At the same time, the process of information processing itself is not realized, and only its result “enters consciousness.”

Very complex mental problems can be solved in the subconscious. The subconscious cannot be turned off; it continues to function even when we are busy with completely different things.

It is assumed that intuition finds a solution when a person has exhausted the weight of possible options, but has not yet lost interest in the task. When he has freed himself from the template, become convinced of its unsuitability and at the same time retained his passion for the task, an intuitive hint gives the optimal effect. The more simplified and extremely schematized the problem, the more likely it is to find an intuitive solution. It rather comes in those cases when a person comprehends an unfamiliar problem, for the solution of which he has not yet developed and automated intellectual skills.

Intuition is a special instinct, insight inherent in a person. Not everyone has intuition. Predictions by intuition are made, as a rule, without any calculations, on a whim. What we call insight, or the sixth sense, is intuition. This insight comes to the most experienced, broad-minded managers who have minimal time and do not have the opportunity to think about the situation for a long time. The decisions of senior management executives are often intuitive. They use intuition as one of their techniques for making the most important decisions. This method is also used by creative individuals.

Pythagoras was convinced: in order to know the essence, measure and connection of phenomena, it is necessary to awaken intuition - a magical and inexplicable property that, in addition to a person’s will, helps him to penetrate with his mind’s eye into the mysterious mechanism that controls the universe. It is appropriate to remember M. Zoshchenko. When some part of the story didn’t work out for him, he put off the work until the morning with the words: “Nothing, it’ll finish in the oven,” counting on the work of subconscious thinking.

Had excellent intuition H.G. Wells. In 1889, in his novels, he predicted the creation of a combat laser; in 1899 - a household video recorder; in 1901 – traffic jams; in 1903 - a tank battle; in 1914 - nuclear weapons. A century later, it turned out that more than 80% of his predictions had come true.

Jules Verne, not being a scientist, in his books predicted the appearance of an airplane and a helicopter, a submarine and a spaceship. Of J. Verne’s 108 predictions, 98 came true.

A person can give himself a task during sleep to find a solution to a problem. This is how he created his famous periodic table elements D.I. Mendeleev, this is how R. Pauls wrote melodies.

However, creativity cannot be considered a completely subconscious process. The preliminary accumulation of material is carried out under the control of consciousness. Experts have developed a number of rules that allow you to activate subconscious thinking.

– The problem that needs to be solved must be carefully formulated. The responses of the subconscious largely depend on this.

– The initial, cumulative information recorded by the brain should be presented “not in bulk,” but strictly structured, laid out “on shelves.”

– It is important to formulate specific, narrowly focused questions so that they acquire the most concise, easily understandable form. Specific questions act as “hooks” by which ideas are extracted.

– It’s better not to put aside an unsolved task without feeling at least a little successful. We need to understand some aspect of the issue by the time we stop working on a solution.

– To evoke subconscious activity, conscious effort and tension are absolutely necessary. Only in a state of intense concentration can one understand the mystery of existence. After a break, only those problems become clear that we wish to solve with all our hearts or that we have worked hard to solve.

The so-called “principle of practical certainty” is closely related to the intuitive definition of probability: “If the probability of an event is small, then we should assume that in a single experiment - in this particular case - this event will not happen. And, conversely, if the probability is high, the event should be expected.”

The intuitive way of making management decisions is both difficult and easy. It is difficult because it requires a lot of experience and knowledge, and it is easy because... does not require any complex calculations.

People who neglect intuition deprive themselves of a powerful source that can be very useful when making decisions. We recognize the ability of animals to follow their instincts, but we ourselves are not inclined to accept the fact that a human being is capable of understanding things that lie beyond the limits of his rational thinking. It is necessary to support and develop intuition, and not suppress it.

A manager quite often has to make a choice between two alternative solutions under conditions of uncertainty. For such cases, the method described by Sigmund Freud is very interesting, the essence of which is as follows:

– take an ordinary coin;

– each of the decision options is coded “heads” or “tails”;

– by tossing a coin, the occurrence of “heads” or “tails” is kept in order for one of the decisions to prevail;

– the outlier solutions are compared with the internal (intuitive) assessment.

At the same time, if it does not cause internal protest, then it is accepted, but if a wave of disagreement with the fallen lot rises, then the opposite is done. Indispensable conditions The application of this method is the presence of acquired experience in the relevant field. This method is presented not so much to follow it directly, but to demonstrate the possibilities of using and developing intuition.

Unfortunately, the mechanism of intuition has not yet been fully studied, which gives reason to perceive it somewhat warily. Meanwhile, countless factors leave no doubt that the process of cognition does not necessarily have to be associated with detailed logical proofs. If in each specific case we try to argue the entire decision-making process, then in many cases prompt decision-making would be impossible. In the setting market relations, when external factors are constantly changing, the need for decision-making with a lack of information will increase and then using the hint of intuition is not only permissible, but also mandatory.

Despite the fact that intuition intensifies along with the acquisition of experience, the consequence of which is precisely a high position, a manager who focuses only on intuition becomes hostage to chance and, from a statistical point of view, his chances of right choice not great.

However, you should not completely trust your intuition. Intuition must be complemented by logic, a critical assessment of intuitive conclusions. This is due to the fact that intuitive conclusions can be true, or they can be false. Erroneous intuitive conclusions are based on psychological reasons and peculiarities of people's perception.

One of the most common mistakes of intuition is ignoring the laws of mathematical statistics, in particular, incorrect assessment of randomness. Intuition tends to view a sequence of random events as a self-correcting process in which a deviation in one direction entails a deviation in the other to restore equilibrium.

Apparently, the laws of mathematical statistics can be consciously mastered and applied, but they do not become part of intuition, they do not enter the thinking apparatus with which the subconscious operates. Intuition is guided by reasoning based on common sense and practical experience, rather than mathematical abstractions.

Other common mistake intuition - neglect of sample sizes. A limited, clearly insufficient number of events on the basis of which inferences are made leads to erroneous conclusions.

Intuition is often mistaken when assessing the frequency of certain phenomena. This is due to the features human memory record bright, unusual, out-of-the-ordinary phenomena and events, or those that were accompanied by increased emotional arousal. Such events are easier to recall and seem more frequent.

A typical error of intuition is associated with estimating the probability of complex events based on an intuitive conclusion about the probability of an elementary event.

Intuition often fails in cases of “imaginary correlations” of two events. Judging how often two events coincide is based on how strong the associated connection between them is in memory. But the strength of this connection is determined not only by the frequency of coincidence of events, but also by emotional coloring, comparative inequality of coincidence, etc. Therefore, intuitive conclusions about the frequency of coincidence of two events, based on the strength of the associative connection, often turn out to be false.

Intuition helps with high uncertainty of expectations as internal factors system, and parameters of the external environment, under which the use of analytical and logical methods of thinking loses its meaning.

A person’s intuition, provided he has sufficient experience in a particular area, plays an exceptional role in these cases. At the same time, at a subconscious level, as a result of complex thought processes, taking into account subjective perception, emotional experiences and interests, a probabilistic model of the future is predicted. It should be noted that this process is purely personal, each person has his own set of parameters and preferences, and the human brain has an amazing ability to prioritize them and operate with them, giving the consciousness a ready-made solution.

Remembering the advantages, you need to be aware of the disadvantages of intuition. This is, firstly, the lack of evidentiary value. Intuition is sometimes enough to find optimal solutions, but not enough to convince others of the correctness of this decision. This requires evidence.

Secondly, intuitive solutions- These are decisions of common sense, which, as a rule, is conservative. Stereotypical thinking does not always lead to success.

Thirdly, intuitive guesses can be false (they just rarely remember this - when “insights” turn out to be true, they are remembered and written about, but erroneous ones are usually forgotten).

Fourthly, the accessibility and ease of using intuition can lead a manager to false conclusions. A special ability of the intellect to extract correct intuitive conclusions is required. As P. Valery noted: “Intuition without intelligence is an accident.”

An intuitive assessment of probability cannot always serve as a basis for decision-making, especially in cases where it is made in non-standard, unusual situations.

Dividing an apple into 4 equal parts will not confuse anyone. The individual will take the knife in his hands and make two movements: in half and in half again. What if, instead of an apple, imagine a globe and try to divide it (mentally, of course) in the same way, but so that the last half is the size of an atom? How many movements with the intended knife need to be made? There are a million or more options spinning in my head. ... However, in reality - only about 170. The reason for such a gross mistake is that in this case we are faced with an unusual task, in solving which we have no experience.

An intuitive decision must be prepared by experience. “Random” discoveries are made only by prepared people; they cannot arise out of nowhere; they must be preceded by searches based on the use of conventional methods, experience in solving similar problems, life experience, finally. Louis Pasteur said about this: “Chance helps only the mind that is ready to take advantage of it.” It can definitely be said that intuition is something that is highly valued in management, and its voice must be listened to. However, focusing only on intuition is clearly not enough, and previous experience and common sense cannot be discounted.

7. Decisions based on judgment.

Judgment-based decisions are choices driven by knowledge and experience. The manager uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations previously to predict the outcome of alternative choices in current situation. Using common sense, the manager chooses the alternative that has brought success in the past. Judgment is a mental activity, and decisions based on judgment are made quickly and at no extra cost. Most of the decisions made by mid-level and lower-level managers are based on judgment.

The ability to apply the skill acquired in solving one problem to solving another is very essential for a leader. To do this, you need to learn to notice in the problem being solved what can be useful in the future when solving other problems.

The analogy method is especially effective when using your own experience by comparing the problem that has arisen with a similar problem that was once successfully solved.

When solving technical and organizational problems, personal, direct and biological analogies are used.

A personal analogy is based on the identification of the creator with the object of research. Albert Einstein, judging by his memoirs, often allowed himself to be identified with a priori mathematical constructions.

Using a similar method during the war, the headquarters of the English fleet managed to develop effective techniques combating torpedoes of fascist submarines. A group of officers were asked to imagine themselves on a ship attacked by a torpedo. One of the officers, after long and fruitless analogies, suddenly suggested: “I would line up all the sailors along the side and command them to blow with all their might!” The idea was implemented in technical execution: pumping equipment was used to drive away the torpedo. Powerful jets deflected the torpedo from its course and it missed the ship. Thousands of English sailors' lives were saved.

Direct analogy is carried out by comparing parallel facts. For example, the problem of one underwater structure was solved by observing how worms make tunnels in wood: the worm constructs a tube for itself as it moves forward.

Biological analogy is used to study management systems of organizations and consists in drawing an analogy between the methods and features of managing the life activity of living organisms and organizations.

In general, while having a positive value, these solutions are not suitable in non-standard situations. In these cases, there are many factors that need to be taken into account. Without experience, a manager cannot cover and compare all the facts if a decision is made for the first time. Acting by analogy, it is easy to miss other, much more profitable solutions.

A leader who is overly influenced by judgment and experience may consciously or unconsciously avoid anything new. Many of us are slaves to linear thinking, so very often we hear the words: “We have always done it this way!”, and are very reluctant to change anything.

Judgment-based decisions also tend to be patterned. The presence and certain patterns of a pattern in a person’s actions can be judged from the following example. Like any lottery, Sportloto requires a certain decision from participants. In this case, cross out 6 numbers from 49 or 5 from 36. The decisions of the vast majority of participants (and they are approximately 1/3 of the planet's population) were stereotyped. The most frequently crossed out number was 7 (apparently, this number has a large number of fans and many consider it lucky). Numbers up to 31 were crossed out approximately 5 times more often (the number of days in a month does not exceed 31 - many chose them accordingly memorable dates). The players avoided crossing out adjacent numbers and generally avoided any patterns. It was believed that the more random the crossing out, the higher the probability of these numbers falling out; They didn’t even think about the fact that the lottery machine throws out any combination of 5 or 6 numbers with equal probability. The winners were those whose decisions differed from the standard ones. After all, in Sportloto, the more lucky ones there are, the smaller the winnings for each of them. Patterned behavior is a mass phenomenon. And if the lottery machine throws out a stereotypical combination, then the number of winners turns out to be very large, and the winnings are correspondingly small. Unconventional moves of the lottery machine lead to a small number of big wins.

The weakness of decisions based on judgment is their subjectivity, which is determined both by the character of the leader and by his personal competence, determined by experience and education.

Eliminating subjectivism and significantly increasing the likelihood of making the right choice is possible only by approaching the decision rationally.

8. The process of making a rational management decision.

A rational decision is made based on an objective analytical process and is not dependent on past experience.

Stages of acceptance rational decision:

1. Diagnosis of the problem (recognizing symptoms of difficulties, identifying relevant information).

2. Identification of constraints and criteria. Having identified the constraints, the manager must set standards for evaluating alternatives, which are called decision criteria. The criteria are usually economic indicators of the effectiveness of solving the problem (budget, profit, etc.)

3. Identifying alternatives. At this stage, several alternatives that meet your specified criteria are selected and comprehensively evaluated.

4. Evaluation of alternatives. You should start evaluating alternatives only after you have compiled a list of all the ideas. All ideas are discussed, positive and negative possible consequences of making a particular decision, risks are identified, and points are assigned.

5. Selecting an alternative. The alternative with the most positive overall outcome is selected. Research has shown that a manager often chooses the “satisfying” rather than the “maximizing” alternative. The optimal solution often becomes unavailable due to lack of time and the ability to take into account all the relevant information.

6. Implementation. E. Harrison emphasizes: “The real value of the solution becomes obvious only after its implementation.” To solve a problem, the solution must be implemented. This requires bringing into play the entire management process, and especially the functions of organization and motivation.

7. Feedback. At this stage, the manager monitors the actual results of the decision made, compares them with the selected criteria and, in case of discrepancies, makes adjustments to the course of its implementation.

9. Basic requirements for a management decision.

The main requirements for a management decision are the following:

1. Target orientation, i.e. the decision must achieve a specific goal.

2. Validity, i.e. the decision made must reflect the objective laws of development of the facility and its management system. A decision that contradicts these laws will be passively or actively rejected, which requires additional expenditure of resources and, accordingly, will slow down the development of the organization.

3. Compromise. The need for this requirement comes from the fact that practical management decisions always have negative consequences, i.e. It is impossible to make a decision that completely satisfies the organization, the manager and all employees.

And from this point of view, it is important to keep in mind the long-term effectiveness of the decision being made. For example, when deciding to hire workers for life, the management of an enterprise understands that additional costs for wages are inevitable, especially during economic crises, but believes that maintaining the loyalty of employees and maintaining corporate spirit will, in the long run, be more profitable for the enterprise.

It is the ability to make decisions, seeing their shortcomings, but not allowing them to paralyze one’s own will, that distinguishes an effective leader. These people understand that making an ineffective decision is better than making no decision at all. At the same time, there are situations when, due to a lack of information, failure to make a decision becomes the only correct way to behave.

In this case, the manager places more hope on the organization's self-regulation than on his own initiative.

4. Timeliness. This means that from the moment of its inception problematic situation Before the decision is made, no irreversible changes should occur in the control object that make the decision unnecessary.

5. Compliance with the powers of the decision-maker, which is a necessary condition for the directiveness of the decision made. This point is also quite important because, when making a decision, the leader takes responsibility for its consequences. Excess of authority creates a precondition for non-implementation of the decision. On the other hand, the manager should not make decisions that are within the competence of subordinate managers, since this leads to a decrease in the initiative of subordinates.

6. Consistency and consistency with management principles and previously made decisions, since no decision is implemented in isolation, but complements other decisions.

7. Cost-effectiveness and efficiency. The requirement for effectiveness is to ensure that intended goals are achieved. At the same time, it is important that the goal is achieved with minimal costs and expenses, which makes the solution economical.

10. Conditions for the development of high-quality management decisions.

Solution- this is the choice of actions that a person needs to take when he has information that is completely insufficient for the answer to suggest itself.

There are two main approaches to decision making: intuitive and rational.

Intuitive approach

Intuition- instinct, insight, direct comprehension of the truth without a logical basis, based on previous experience (Kholodnaya, “Psychology of Intelligence”)

Intuition– the ability to arrive at an intellectual result unconsciously based on the emergence of a subjective feeling of the unconditional correctness of the decision.

Intuition is characterized by:

  • speed (sometimes instantaneity) of formulating hypotheses and making decisions;
  • insufficient awareness of its logical foundations.

Intuition manifests itself in conditions of subjectively and/or objectively incomplete information and is organically included in the inherent ability of human thinking extrapolations(replenishment of existing and anticipation of still unknown information).

Mechanisms of intuition consist in the simultaneous combination of several informative signs of different modalities into complex guidelines that guide the search for a solution. ( Meshcheryakov, Zinchenko)

Features of the information stage when making an intuitive decision:

  • Often used to solve relatively simple problems;
  • The intuitive approach does not give good results when the manager's experience is small and the previous situations do not correspond to the new one;
  • The quality of intuitive decisions may be affected by an insufficient understanding of the current situation

Characteristics:

1. The subject of the decision keeps the whole problem in his head;

2. As the problem develops, the approach to solving it can change radically;

3. It is possible to simultaneously consider several options;

4. The sequence of steps may not be followed;

5. The quality of a decision is based primarily on the previous experience of the decision maker.

Rational approach

It consists of structuring the decision-making process.

Features of the information stage:

  • It is used if the problem situation is not so obvious, its solution is ambiguous;
  • Mandatory elements of the process are the presence of a step-by-step plan and solution methods, as well as their information support;
  • The work of collecting, processing and evaluating information is carried out at all stages of the process, but each time it has its own characteristics, reflecting the specifics of the actions performed and tasks to be solved, as well as the manager’s work style;
  • The diagram of the decision-making process presented below reflects the logic of management activities. In practice, this process is more complex and allows for parallelism of a number of procedures, which can significantly reduce the decision-making time.

Stages of the decision making process, each of which corresponds to certain procedures:



1. Statement of the problem: emergence new situation, emergence of a problem, collection of necessary information, description of the problem situation;

2. Development of solution options; formulation of requirements-constraints; collecting the necessary information, developing possible solutions;

3. Selecting a solution: defining selection criteria, selecting solutions that meet the criteria; assessment of possible consequences, selection of a preferable solution;

4. Organization of the implementation of the solution and its assessment: plan for the implementation of the selected solution, monitoring the progress of the solution, assessment of the problem and the emergence of a new situation.

Thus, a rational decision is justified analytically.

8. Features of balanced, impulsive, inert, risky, cautious decisions.

The main factors influencing the quality of a management decision are: the application of scientific approaches and principles, modeling methods, management automation, motivation for a quality decision, etc. to the management system.

Typically, in making any decision, three elements are present to varying degrees: intuition, judgment and rationality. Let's get to know each of them separately /9/.

Upon acceptance purely intuitive solution people base their decisions on their own feelings that their choices are correct. There is a “sixth sense” here, a kind of insight, visited, as a rule, by representatives of the highest echelon of power. Middle managers rely more on computer information and assistance. Despite the fact that intuition becomes sharper along with the acquisition of experience, the continuation of which is precisely a high position, a manager who focuses only on it becomes hostage to chance, and from a statistical point of view, his chances of making the right choice are not very high.



Solutions, based on judgment are in many ways similar to intuitive ones, probably because at first glance their logic is poorly visible. But still, they are based on knowledge and meaningful, unlike the previous case, experience of the past. Using them and relying on common sense, as adjusted for today, the option that brought the greatest success in a similar situation in the past is selected. However, common sense is rare among people, so this method of decision-making is also not very reliable, although it is captivating with its speed and cheapness.

Another weakness is that the judgment cannot be related to a situation that has not previously occurred, and therefore there is simply no experience in solving it. In addition, with this approach, the manager strives to act primarily in those directions that are familiar to him, as a result of which he risks missing out on good results in another area, consciously or unconsciously refusing to invade it.

Since decisions are made by people, their character largely bears the imprint of the personality of the manager involved in their birth. In this regard, it is customary to distinguish between balanced, impulsive, inert, risky and cautious decisions.

Balanced Solutions accepted by managers who are attentive and critical to their actions, put forward hypotheses and their testing. They usually have an initial idea formulated before making a decision.

Impulsive decisions whose authors easily generate a wide variety of ideas in unlimited quantities, but are not able to properly test, clarify, and evaluate them. Therefore, decisions turn out to be insufficiently substantiated and reliable; they are made “at once”, “in jerks”.

Inert solutions become the result of a careful search. In them, on the contrary, control and clarifying actions prevail over the generation of ideas, so it is difficult to detect originality, brilliance, and innovation in such decisions.

Risky decisions They differ from impulsive ones in that their authors do not need to carefully substantiate their hypotheses and, if they are confident in themselves, may not be afraid of any dangers.

Careful decisions are characterized by the manager’s thorough assessment of all options and a supercritical approach to business. They are even less distinguished by novelty and originality than inert ones.

The listed types of decisions are made mainly in the process of operational personnel management. For strategic and tactical management of any subsystem of the management system, rational decisions, based on methods of economic analysis, justification and optimization. These issues will be discussed below.

With the help of validity, one can characterize the way a decision is made and predetermine its quality. Making a decision is most often easy; you just need to make a choice and point to the chosen alternative. But in order to make a high-quality and effective decision, it needs to be justified.

On the other hand, decision making is a complex psychological process because it is made by people and not by machines. Human behavior cannot always be justified logically; often when making decisions, people use intuition, feelings and emotions instead of calculations and logical reasoning.

Intuition in decision making

Most personal and business decisions are based on intuition.

Definition 1

Intuitive decisions are decisions based on a person's feeling that they are correct. When making such decisions, the manager does not consciously compare all the advantages and disadvantages of each of the alternatives. Decisions are made subconsciously and not logically justified.

Intuition is an unconscious act of the mind that helps to find a solution to a problem, without resorting to reasoning and inference. Intuition is presented as some kind of insight or short-term awareness of a problem (situation) without the use of rational thinking.

The mechanism of intuition is very complex in nature and poorly studied to date.

Note 1

Intuition is a powerful tool in decision making that needs constant improvement and active use in management activities.

The insight that appears as a result of the work of intuition does not come with lightning speed. Before it is fixed, a long and painstaking work of human consciousness takes place. Through observation, a person collects information, accumulates it in memory, systematizes it and arranges it in a certain order. Often this way you can come to an optimal solution to the problem, but when ambiguities or contradictions appear, consciousness temporarily gives way to intuition and imagination. Through the imagination, associations and ideas are generated, many of which are immediately rejected. But it happens that one of the ideas is so close to reality that an intuitive insight occurs, pushing it from the subconscious into consciousness.

Intuitive UR

An intuitive decision is a choice made based on a feeling that it is correct. When making this type of decision, the manager cannot justify the choice of one or another alternative.

There is an assumption that the functioning of intuition occurs on a subconscious level, on the basis of the entire mass of information received, including informal, random and not recorded by consciousness.

In the process of making an intuitive decision, information is unconsciously processed in the human brain, and as a result, a feeling appears about what choice needs to be made and what alternative to choose.

Note 2

The ability to make management decisions only on the basis of intuition is inherent in very few specialists. As a result of research, it turned out that intuition is mainly used in the work of senior managers. Success in use this method The justification for the decision is due to the outstanding leadership, high qualifications and extensive experience. The vast majority of managers have little chance of successfully making decisions without using logical reasoning.

When using only an intuitive approach in decision making, there is a high probability of making an erroneous decision.

A management decision is a product of managerial work, and its adoption is a process leading to the appearance of this product. Decision making is a conscious choice from available options for a course of action that allows you to achieve an existing goal. A decision is the form in which the control influence of the subject of management on the object of management is carried out. Therefore, the quality of management decisions is a criterion for the effectiveness of a manager.

The solution must meet a number of requirements. The main ones are validity, clarity of formulation, real feasibility, timeliness, economy, efficiency (the degree to which the goal is achieved in comparison with the expenditure of resources).

As a rule, decisions should be made where a problem situation arises; For this, managers at the appropriate level must be given the appropriate powers, at the same time assigning them responsibility for the state of affairs at the managed facility. Very an important condition The positive impact of a decision on the work of an organization is its consistency with those decisions that were made earlier (both vertically and horizontally of management (here, of course, we do not mean the case when the task is to radically change the entire development policy).

2. Classification of management decisions

An organization makes a large number of different decisions. They vary in content, duration and development, focus and scale of impact, level of adoption, information availability, etc. Using classification, we can identify classes of decisions that require a different approach to the process and methods of their adoption, are not the same in terms of time spent, and others resources (Table 1).

Table 1

Classification of decisions made in an organization


Programmable solutions are solutions to recurring and well-defined problems. As a rule, these are standard tasks that arise repeatedly in the organization, about which there is sufficiently reliable and reliable information, as well as ready-made, developed and previously successfully applied rules and procedures. The procedure establishes the order, sequence of actions, rights, and responsibilities of participants in the interaction in the decision-making process. An example is the task of placing a periodic order of inventory for one of the workshops of an enterprise. To develop and optimize programmable solutions, formalized methods are used that have a clear algorithm for solving the problem in the form of economic and mathematical models, methods of data analysis and calculation, and computer programs that provide high accuracy of quantitative assessment of the developed options.

Non-programmable solutions involve new, complex, never-before-seen, unconventional, unforeseen problems that cannot be accurately quantified. As a rule, they are difficult to define and structure; they are characterized by an unclear formulation of the goal, inaccuracy and uncertainty of information, and the lack of clear rules and decision procedures. When developing non-programmable solutions, heuristic methods are used. They are characterized by the fact that the development of alternative solutions is based not on precise calculations, but on logic, judgment and inference. This involves using professional knowledge, a high level of qualifications, creativity specialists in various fields. Non-programmable decisions include decisions related to defining goals and formulating an organization’s development strategy, changing its structure, forecasting work in new markets, etc. The number of such decisions increases as the scale and complexity of the organization grows, and the dynamism and uncertainty of its external environment increases. .

Intuitive decisions are choices made only based on a feeling that they are right. The decision maker does not weigh the pros and cons of each alternative; he does not evaluate the situation, but relies on insight and feeling. Intuition involves hunches, imagination, insight, or thoughts that often manifest themselves spontaneously in conscious awareness of a problem and subsequent decision making. An intuitive approach can give good results when analyzing problems that require urgent solutions, in a situation with difficult-to-define goals, imprecise information and the impossibility of quantitative assessment.

Judgment-based decisions are choices driven by knowledge and experience. A person uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations before and predicts the outcome of an alternative choice. There is a danger here of missing out on a new alternative, since the manager is guided by old experience in solving similar problems.

Rational decisions do not depend on past experience. The process of their adoption involves choosing an alternative that will bring maximum benefits to the organization. The search for the best solution is underway. The procedure for making a rational decision includes seven successive stages:

1) definition of the problem;

2) formulation of restrictions and decision-making criteria;

3) identification of alternatives;

4) evaluation of alternatives;

5) choice of alternative;

6) implementation of the decision;

7) feedback.

3. Factors influencing the decision-making process

Definition of the problem. A necessary condition The decision maker is the problem itself: if there were no problems, there would be no need for solutions. Problems are usually of three types: favorable, crisis and ordinary.

Crisis and normal are clear issues that need to be addressed by managers.

Favorable ones, on the contrary, are usually veiled, and the manager must detect them.

Because most crisis and routine problems by their nature require immediate attention, a manager may spend a lot of time dealing with them and not have time to deal with important new favorable problems.

Many well-managed organizations try to look away from crisis and routine issues and toward longer-term issues by setting long-term goals, strategies, and planning programs.

The first phase of problem definition is awareness of the symptoms of failure or existing opportunities. These symptoms are:

1) low profits, sales, labor productivity, product quality;

2) high production and distribution costs;

3) numerous conflicts in the organization, high staff turnover, low motivation and dedication of staff. The second phase of diagnosing a problem is determining the causes of the problems.

The next step is to rank the problem among other problems. The ranking can be based on the following factors:

1) impact on the organization;

2) urgency of the problem and time constraints;

3) support for the problem from the outside in favor of its solution;

4) problem life cycle.

Formulation of restrictions and decision criteria.

At this stage, resources for implementing the solution are taken into account. They must be realistic. Limitations can be time limits for developing and solving a problem, the amount of funds allocated for this, and parameters for the effectiveness of achieving goals. In addition to limitations, the manager also determines the standards by which alternative choices must be evaluated. These are decision criteria. They have different content and form. The criteria are most fully developed for programmable solutions, where the use of quantitative analysis methods and electronic data processing is possible.

The application of economic and mathematical methods to solving management problems makes it possible to use a target function as a selection criterion, which usually needs to be maximized or minimized; Therefore, such a choice is called optimization. Examples of optimization criteria include: maximizing profits, income, productivity, efficiency; minimization of costs, losses from defects or downtime, etc. The optimal solution is selected based on a comparison of the quantitative value of the objective function for all possible options; The best solution is considered to be the one that provides the most desirable value of the target criterion. An example of such solutions is optimization of equipment loading, warehouse stocks, cutting of materials, etc.

To evaluate options for semi-structured solutions, a system of weighted criteria is used. The possibilities of this approach to choosing the best option can be illustrated with a simple example. Let's say an organization is faced with the problem of choosing a supplier of the necessary materials. Several such companies were discovered, and during preliminary negotiations all of them agreed to cooperate with this organization. However, they offer different terms regarding supplies, prices, discounts, etc. The most suitable supplier needs to be identified. To do this, a comparative analysis of the proposed options is carried out with a focus on the most significant criteria for the consumer organization. Let us assume that in this case the following criteria are chosen:

1) price per unit of supplied material;

2) the size of the minimum supplies;

3) conditions for providing discounts and benefits;

4) quality of material;

5) geographical location of the supplier company;

6) the status of the latter.

They are not the same in their importance for the organization, so they must be “weighed” against the main criterion. Let the price for the supplied material be determined for these, and it is given the maximum numerical rating, for example, 10. The rest are evaluated by comparison with the highest rating (Table 2), as a result of which they are assigned the weights indicated in the table.

Table 2

Weighting criteria



In particular, attention should be paid to the fact that the organization attaches the same importance to the geographical location of the supplier company as to the price of the supplied material. This is due to high transport tariffs for freight transportation. The table also shows that the organization about which we're talking about, not very concerned about minimum size supplies and does not attach much importance to the status of the supplier, although it still takes it into account when selecting. All possible solution options are evaluated based on selected and weighted criteria. Conventionally, four supplier companies are considered, which are designated as A, B, C, and D. In fact, there may be much more of them, but they are either unknown or not taken into account (for one reason or another). At this stage, a comparative assessment of each company is made for each criterion (the result is presented in Table 3); the maximum score is 10. If we sum up all the scores received by firms for all criteria, then firm A will receive the sum of 40, B - 38, C - 34 and firm D - 37.

However, it is too early to make a final decision. It is necessary to take into account the different “weight category” of each criterion and only after that can the company be determined which will be given preference. The results of this stage are presented in Table 4, and a somewhat unexpected conclusion follows from them: the highest total ratings, significantly ahead, are received by company G, which at the previous stage occupied the penultimate place.

Table 3

Weighing options based on selection criteria



Table 4

Total weighing of options according to selection criteria


The use of this approach is based on the assumption that it is possible to determine all the criteria and decision options, that the priorities are known and that they, as well as the weights assigned to them, are permanent character. Under such conditions, the option with the maximum score is chosen.

Identifying alternatives. Theoretically, it is necessary to identify all possible options for solving a problem, but in practice, a manager rarely has the knowledge and time to do this. Therefore, the number of alternatives for further consideration is limited to a few options that are considered good enough to improve the problem situation. New and unique problems often arise. The choice of alternatives then becomes a complex creative process.

There are many methods of creative search for alternatives, the main purpose of which is to generate ideas: brainstorming, group analysis of the situation, cause-and-effect diagram, morphological analysis, electronic brainstorming method, etc. The manager’s task is to create a creative atmosphere for searching for alternatives.

The conditions for creating such an atmosphere may be:

1) motivation in search;

2) providing all the necessary information to comprehensively understand the problem;

3) free discussion and admission of any ideas to solve the problem, excluding criticism of proposals;

4) setting aside time to develop ideas.

Evaluation of alternatives. At this stage, the advantages and disadvantages of the identified options for solving the problem are determined. To compare alternatives, the criteria established in the second stage are used. If a solution does not meet the criterion, it is not considered further. An important point in evaluation is to determine the likelihood of each alternative being realized.

Selecting an alternative or making a decision. The best solution is the one that most closely aligns with the firm's goals and values ​​while using the least amount of resources.

If the problem has been correctly defined and alternative solutions have been carefully evaluated, then decision making is relatively simple.

However, if the problem is new, complex, and there are many probabilistic factors or subjective information to consider, no single choice may be the best.

In this case, you can rely on intuition and experience. You can also resort to experimentation and the use of ready-made solution models for particularly complex situations.

Implementation of the solution. This stage allows you to determine the correctness and optimality of the decision made. To implement the decision, it must be communicated to the implementers. They must receive clear information about who, where, when and in what ways should carry out actions consistent with this decision.

It is necessary to develop a plan for its implementation, which provides for a system of measures to ensure the successful achievement of the goals.

One of the planning mechanisms at this stage may be the so-called decision tree, which allows, by decomposing the selected option, to present a set of goals and objectives to be achieved and solved. A conditional example is this.

Let’s say that in the process of solving the problem of determining the organization’s strategy for the future, the main strategic directions were chosen to ensure the achievement of the goal set by management for a given period: to survive in difficult crisis conditions; maintain and strengthen its position in the market of competitive products; create the preconditions for further intervention in markets, as well as for maximizing the use and expansion of the organization's potential. These directions are formulated as follows:

1) concentrate efforts on the production of competitive products A, B, C, using both domestic and foreign markets for their sales;

2) develop and implement a program of cooperation with other enterprises and organizations directly or indirectly related to the production of products A, B, C, in order to attract equity investments;

3) change the organization’s management system in order to de-bureaucratize it, create the most favorable conditions for the development of creativity and the use of a team structure of work.

Feedback. It is carried out in the form of monitoring the implementation of a decision based on information about the progress of its implementation, measurement, evaluation and comparison of actual results with planned ones.

Control can reveal not only deviations from the planned action plan, but also shortcomings of the solution itself that require timely elimination.

To reduce such shortcomings, the control function should be carried out at all stages of the decision-making process.

This may make it necessary to repeat the procedures of previous steps. Decision making becomes a continuous process.

It does not end with the decision-making stage, the choice of a single option. Feedback provides managers with information that can initiate a new decision-making cycle.

4. Group decision making

In most organizations, many decisions are made in teams and groups. Managers often face situations that require discussion in meetings. This is especially true for nonprogrammable problems that are new, complex, and involve great uncertainty in the outcome. Solving such problems by one person is rarely done on a regular basis.

It requires specialized knowledge in a number of areas that one person does not typically possess. This is a requirement along with the obvious reality that decisions made must be perceived and implemented by multiple parts of the organization, increased the use of a collective approach to the decision-making process.

There are many methods for group discussion of a problem and decision making. The main ones are: synectics, nominal group method, Delphi method, expert assessment method, consent planning, script writing. Let's take a closer look at synectics.

Synectics is the combination of different elements that do not correspond to each other. As a method, it involves identifying opposing sides or trends in the object under consideration. Great importance is attached to the formulation of the problem. It is believed that premature formulation may hinder the search for original solutions. Therefore, the discussion often begins not with the formulation of the problem, but with identifying the essence of the problem, the fundamental principles of the functioning of a given object or process. This then allows us to move from the general range of problems to the study of the specific conditions of a given problem.

During a “sinector attack,” constructive criticism is allowed. Main creative techniques The types of analogies used in synectics are: direct, personal, symbolic and fantastic.

With direct analogy, the problem or object under consideration is compared with similar problems or objects from another field (biology, technology, medicine, etc.). For example, if the problem of adaptation is being solved, then one can easily draw a parallel with a chameleon changing color, etc. In a personal analogy, the participants in the “synector attack” try to get used to the problem or object, merge with it, look at it from the inside in order to to better understand the conditions and mechanism of action.

With a symbolic analogy, a concise semantic formulation is selected in the form brief definition, reflecting the essence of the problem under consideration. For example, flame is visible heat, strength is forced integrity, etc. With a fantastic analogy, the developer introduces some fantastic creatures or objects into the problem being solved (for example, a magic wand or magic lamp Aladdin), who could accomplish what is required by the conditions of the task. Thus, with the help of analogies, developers try, when solving a complex, extraordinary problem, to see what is already known in the unknown, which allows them to use familiar methods. If a common problem is being solved, then an analogy allows you to avoid stereotyped thinking and look at the problem from a new, unexpected angle and find an original solution.

Synectics is a more developed and complex method creative activity group whose purpose is to formulate a solution. The synectic group is formed from researchers trained in creative work methods, who are highly qualified specialists different professions or different disciplines.

The age of the participants does not matter, but experience has shown that the most suitable for “synectors” are people aged 25–40 years. It is believed that before the age of 25 a person does not have sufficient experience, and after 40 he is no longer so receptive to new ideas.

Members of a synectic group must be distinguished by creative maturity, rich imagination and imagination, independence and unbiased opinions, the ability to take risks, the ability to abstract from habitual judgments, think outside the box and highlight the essence of a phenomenon, be uninhibited and free in their thoughts, favorably perceive other people’s ideas, and be able to stop development ideas found in order to look for new ones, be focused and believe in the possibility of solving the problem. Experience shows that the formation of a synectic group can take a whole year. It is created on an ongoing basis, as opposed to groups organized for a short-term period, to solve any complex problems that arise in the organization.

She works full time for the time it takes to solve the problem. The group is led by an experienced specialist who knows the techniques of synectics well. The main task of a synectic group is to use the experience and knowledge from different areas of the team members to generate ideas and develop possible solutions.

There is so much talk about intuition that there is a feeling of a “trend”. And not just talk. They conduct entire seminars and trainings so that a businessman, with the help of intuition, can finally make brilliant decisions that will lead him to millions in earnings.

I cannot ignore this trend. But, forgive me, lovers of zen in business, I’ll be “on the other side.”

How does the human mind really work?

Everything that I will talk about here is not the speculation of complacent fans of astral travel, but the results of boring scientific research. However, boring ones, boring ones, but with shocking conclusions. Therefore, let’s tolerate the scientific nature a little in order to enjoy the result.

So, the work of human consciousness is similar to the principle of operation of a computer. There is A) a hard drive - long-term memory, B) DRAM chips - random access memory, C) a processor - consciousness that processes/analyzes data.

Long-term memory a person can store a large (science does not yet know the limit) amount of information. The volume depends on regular memory training. Simply - if a person constantly, for at least half an hour every day, learns, memorizing ( prerequisite), some blocks of information (foreign languages, poems, quotes, etc.), then long-term memory gradually increases its effectiveness. This is expressed, first of all, in increasing the speed of data transfer from long-term memory to operational memory, according to volitional requests consciousness.

RAM a person can hold 7±2 semantic objects. From 5 to 9. Depends on the same activities as for long-term memory. For simplicity, we will use the average number 7. Semantic objects can be heterogeneous, that is, they can consist of introductory, reference blocks and activities. A distinctive feature of objects located in RAM is that they are extremely accessible for creation. The ray of consciousness can switch with great speed between objects located in RAM, analyzing and then synthesizing a SOLUTION.

Here is a short video from my video course “”, illustrating the process of RAM:

It is known about the work of consciousness, that it operates ONLY according to the principles of logic. The only difference is in the degree of reactivity, that is, whether a person consciously makes a decision or acts according to automatic programs-templates laid down by society in the subconscious. An example of an unconscious reaction is a purchase or making another financial decision based on the pressure of the authority of the interlocutor (consisting of the “weight” of his recognition, position, title, clothing, profession, attributes) without taking into account other aspects of his proposal-incitement to action.

Let me go back a step and note that there is another unpleasant, but objective property of consciousness. A person unconsciously strives to make a decision not even on the basis of 7 semantic objects, but to reduce everything to three (!). Although, as we already know, it can quite operate with seven objects.

And now there's even more bad news. A person unconsciously strives to make a decision based on those objects that

A) easy to take time to comprehend,

B) he just likes him for one reason or another.

Example: to make a decision about holding an enterprise’s participation in a foreign exhibition, you need to take into account the following factors: A) warehouse stocks, B) the state of relations with suppliers, C) the marketing component of the market, D) the current financial condition, E) general trends in demand and sales, E) forecast financial flows for a period of at least 6 months before and 6 months after the exhibition. There are enough factors to illustrate. So, if a charismatic (there is such a type, more about it later) entrepreneur does not like to engage in financial analysis, then he will “intuitively” and unconsciously simply exclude this component from the analysis.

So let's remember: So-called “intuitive” decisions are decisions made on the basis of unconsciously following the logic of the rules laid down by society in the subconscious. That is, in fact, there is no mysticism in intuition.

But maybe acting according to intuition is at least statistically beneficial?

No. I came across various studies on this topic. The maximum result is about (I don’t remember with an accuracy of percentage) 50%. This is the maximum (!) result. Who wants to use such statistics to decide to invest a significant portion of their assets? I think there are no fools. That is, of course there is, but they no longer have assets.

The reason for the emergence of modern planning methods

You need to be aware that progress entails a constant increase in the objects needed to make a decision. Back in the 19th century, a merchant needed to take into account about 100 times fewer factors to make a decision than a modern businessman. The main reason is that back then the rate of market change was about 100 times slower. Now, to make a decision, most often it is necessary to take into account more than 7 semantic objects, that is, factors. Let me note that it is not easy to RECOGNIZE that they EXIST, but to TAKE CONSIDERATION, that is, to involve them in the analysis 100%.

From here we have an “insight” - so this is where, for what and why scientifically developed systems of multifactor risk analysis, software design systems like MS Project and the like, of which there are countless numbers, appeared! This is what people spend years teaching in various MBA courses. This is why corporations pay strategists FROM 20,000 euros per month and believe that this is a small price to pay for at least some foresight of the future.

But in reality, of course, this is all nonsense. There is no need to spend a lot of time, effort and money learning boring things and disciplines. It is enough to take 2-3 seminars from the “intuitive” planning guru and you are a millionaire. Only... the sad truth is that in this case you will be a millionaire in the sense of being one of millions of beggars. The Pinocchio syndrome works flawlessly: “As long as there are fools in the world...”... The rhyme doesn’t come up, well, let’s do without it - in general: “As long as there are fools in the world, the gurus of “intuitive decision making” will be in chocolate.”

About charismatic leaders

Now, dear reader, it’s time for you to “cut” me with a couple of examples from the lives of successful charismatic leaders who make decisions in an instant. Without any analysis. And whatever the solution is, it’s a brilliant one.

Friends, I have been living for five decades and I have other examples for such examples. I wrote, for example, how one of these charismatics is now humbly preparing his enterprise for bankruptcy and really dreams of avoiding criminal prosecution.

And, yes, let’s put emphasis... There is no need to confuse charismatics with pseudo-charismatics. Such pseudo-charisma is sometimes greatly facilitated by unlimited administrative resources. I know several examples of quite ordinary businessmen, even without any education, who suddenly, sometimes by accident, sometimes through family connections, received administrative resources. Married the mayor's daughter, for example. And these weak entrepreneurs SUDDENLY became brilliant businessmen. Every decision is worth a million, every action is “unexpected” luck. No resistance around! Everything works out! Class! Everyone is just running around, dreaming of giving him money.

So, who are the real charismatic leaders? These are people who reached heights in business without marrying the mayor's daughter. We rose mainly through trading. They think well, their ingenuity is at their best. Extroverts. Such nonsense as strategic planning They don’t do it, they don’t even want to hear about project planning. They are generally disgusted by this. I have a very good opinion of myself. Consultants are tolerated only as long as they sing the praises of their intelligence and intelligence. This is, in fact, why they invite you. More precisely, they graciously allow you to stay nearby and learn from them about life. Yes, yes, you understood correctly - so that the consultant learns.)))

As a rule, these are men. Age – 35-55 years. Very strong-willed. Often physically strong. And, yes, about drinking, too, mighty. They just warm up with a bottle of vodka. But not alcoholics, under any circumstances. Decisions are made instantly. Mostly correct. Then less often correctly. Then even less often it is correct. In the end, it is destructively wrong and “the shop closes.”

Why? What is the reason?

Their story is usually this: in the muddy waters of perestroika (90s), crazy conditions were created. Few had any understanding big picture process. At that time, such proactive, strong personalities, making an impression with their charisma, gained access to loans and, in the wake of a total shortage, in a short time they sold for a high price everything they had bought cheaply. You could buy a lot of things cheaply. Firstly, powerful enterprises were falling apart, mountains of scrap metal, machine tools, equipment, semi-finished products lay there, finished products. All this was resold either right there in Russia, or exported abroad for very good money. Secondly, from abroad, all sorts of low-quality junk and food products were imported into Russia, which they did not have time to throw away. It was all instantly sold out here, since consumers had not yet understood what was what and everything imported seemed like a miracle of miracles. It was in those days that these businessmen developed automatisms. Certain actions brought certain results. These templates were imprinted in the mind and their application always had a positive effect.

BUT... times change. The market, the political situation, business technology, and legislation have changed. Consumers, their mentality and sophistication have changed. Competition has increased sharply. The criminal element in business relations has almost disappeared. But they were not fully aware of these changes. After all, these charismatic leaders don’t really like to think. By “think” I do not mean a game of preference, but a serious, in-depth analysis of the business situation. Charismatics continue to automatically apply ancient patterns to new situations. Naturally, the templates work worse and worse and, finally, stop working altogether. Business is falling apart. I noticed that quite often it not only falls apart, but also comes with a criminal case in the form of a “bonus”.

So, we have found out that charismatic leaders are by no means bright and, most importantly, positive representatives of the “method” of intuitive decision making.

Conclusions:

  1. The purses of gurus and preachers of intuitive decision making are replenished by people suffering from subacute and acute forms of Pinocchio syndrome. These unfortunate people still have a little money left after MMM and they are purposefully looking for a better use for it than for training in regular management, that is, training in management in the broadest sense of the word.
  2. The result of intuitive decision-making in the short term is subject to the casino principle. First (not always) a small gain for the seed, then - pockets turned inside out, teeth on the shelf and... in further searches for other gurus, but also specializing in Pinocchio.
  3. There is no alternative to a sober, pragmatic consciousness.
  4. Mastering analytical thinking skills is impossible without eliminating the chaos around you. Start with GTD by David Allen. This is not a panacea, but a necessary first step.
  5. In urgent situations, you may not have enough time to master the skills to solve it. In this case, contact specialists specifically for this problem. I guarantee, inexpensively and, most importantly, safely for the client, I help in cases of problems with organizing a business, launching production, low website conversion and ineffective advertising. I don’t take on all situations.
  6. Be realistic to the core. This is the only correct strategy. Remember that not a single “master of intuition” or “seer” has created a single business, unless you count a sect as a business.
P.S. Would you like to be notified of new articles on this blog? Click on this button -